Asian Markets Dip Amid Economic Concerns Ahead of Key US Jobs Report

Asian markets saw a decline on Tuesday as investors braced for the release of a critical US jobs report later in the week, while concerns about China’s economic health continued to weigh on sentiment. The upcoming non-farm payrolls (NFP) report in the United States is expected to play a pivotal role in determining the size of the Federal Reserve’s anticipated interest rate cut at its next meeting.

Market watchers are closely monitoring the NFP figures, with analysts warning that a result significantly above or below expectations could sway the Fed’s decision-making. A stronger-than-expected jobs report might dampen hopes for multiple rate cuts, while a weaker reading could rekindle fears of a potential recession.

Charu Chanana of Saxo Capital Markets highlighted the importance of this week’s labor data, including job openings and private hiring figures, in shaping the debate between a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut in September. Chanana noted that robust data could lead to a smaller, 25-basis-point cut, but a weak NFP—particularly one below 130,000—could push the market toward expecting a 50-basis-point reduction.

Investors are also keeping an eye on comments from New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Christopher Waller later this week for further insights into the central bank’s thinking.

With Wall Street closed on Monday for a public holiday, there were few significant drivers for the Asian markets, which mostly slipped. Key indices in Hong Kong, Sydney, Seoul, Wellington, Taipei, Manila, Mumbai, and Jakarta fell, with Tokyo ending marginally lower. However, small gains were recorded in Singapore and Bangkok. European markets fared better, with London, Paris, and Frankfurt showing modest increases.

In addition to US concerns, nervousness about China’s economic situation continued to deter buyers. Fresh data revealed that China’s manufacturing sector contracted for the fourth consecutive month, adding to a series of indicators pointing to economic weakness since the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions at the end of 2022. Despite calls for significant stimulus measures, Beijing has so far refrained from introducing the kind of large-scale support seen during the global financial crisis, leaving investors anxiously awaiting further economic data, including upcoming inflation and trade figures.

Meanwhile, the yen strengthened following comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who reiterated his intention to raise interest rates again if inflation and economic conditions align with forecasts. The bank’s unexpected rate hike in July, just before the Fed signaled potential rate cuts, led to a significant unwind of the “yen carry trade,” disrupting markets further.

In corporate news, Cathay Pacific’s Hong Kong-listed shares declined after the airline announced the temporary grounding of its Airbus A350 fleet for inspections. This decision came after an engine component failure forced a flight to Zurich to return to Hong Kong. The airline canceled 24 return flights as it inspected all 48 of its A350 aircraft.